Fakir> Дык эта, у джапов же много лет вообще дефляция была, им аж некоторые американские звёзды экономической мысли рекомендовали "инъекцию инфляции" вообще любой ценой - "вплоть до разбрасывания денег с вертолётов". Вот они может на волне кризиса двух зайцев убивают?
Ха.. Дефляция, жупел кейнсианский №1.. У них был кредитный бум — всё росло на росте кредита. Потом, как всегда, кредитный краник закрылся, и венцом этой суеты был обычный неоплатный гигантский долг. Всё должно было упасть (бу, дефляция) и вернуться в норму, но это же Япония, там
АЭС не пада ничего падать не должно. Так что они поддерживали видимость и заимели себе зомби-банки и зомби-корпорации, дикий уровень задолженности, хоть и внутренней, и "потерянное десятилетие" — зомби-экономику. Что возвращает нас к жупелу. Столько лет они "лечились" зайцами, и не помогло. А теперь из свежеубитых зайцев вырисовался один: разбитые производственные цепочки с глобальными эффектами, то есть спад производства и, как следствие, спад экономики. Как это починить разбрасыванием хоть чего-нибудь с вертолётов? Цифры на ZH уже проскакивали — там новое слово: квадриллион — центробанк закатал рукава.
Part 2 of our "Japan resumes hyprintspeed speed" series comes courtesy of The Privateer's Bill Buckler who has discovered that quadrillion is the new black. The latest projections from the Japanese Finance Ministry regarding the fiscal year which started on April 1 make for sobering reading. They say that Japan’s “public” (funded) debt will probably rise by 5.8 percent this year - to 997.7 TRILLION Yen ($US 12.2 TRILLION at current exchange rates). Should these projections be even slightly on the optimistic side - and government financial projections always are - then Japan could easily be looking at a public debt of 1,000 TRILLION Yen by March 31, 2012.There is another way of expressing 1,000 TRILLION. It is the same as ONE QUADRILLION.The sheer magnitude of these numbers has long been a talking point for the watchers of international finance. Now, they are becoming very nervous indeed. The OECD has recently “urged” the Japanese government to “do something” about their deficits, especially in the wake of the earthquake disaster. Noting that Japanese sovereign debt is about to hit 204 percent of GDP, they suggested that Japan’s current sales tax be “at least” doubled from its present 5 percent to 10 percent. The Japanese Foreign Ministry politely declined to comment on this suggestion, contenting themselves with assuring the OECD that - “We will continue to work to maintain and secure trust in Japanese government bonds.”At this, a line from Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead comes to mind: "Eternity's a terrible thought.
// www.zerohedge.com
While it will not surprise anyone that Japan, which for the past 3 decades has been a monetary policy basket case caught in what bankers like calling a deflationary spiral (yet which others like Sean Corrigan merely define as prices re-indexing to a fair value absent endless cheap credit crutches), has constantly had to resort to a record loose monetary policy coupled with endless episodes of quantitative easing, some may not know that over the past month Japan has seen its current account balance swell by $250 billion, or nearly half the entire Fed QE2 monetization mandate. And as the BOJ continues to disclose the full extent of the Japanese economic devastation following March 11, we are confident that very soon the most recent episode of Japanese “printing” will surpass the $600 billion that the Fed is injecting into the US economy (in addition to the roughly $250 billion in Treasury bonds monetized by the BOJ each year): an amount roughly 5 times greater than America's when expressed as a ratio of GDP. It is thus no surprise then that Bernanke does not seem too concerned with the purported end of QE – after all money printing is merely moving from developed world point A to developed world point B. And thanks to monetary linkages of “globalization” all this brand new money will once again find its way into speculative assets, and thus, Fed mandate #3 favorite - Russell 2000. Below we provide a closer look at what exactly the current and future, Japanese QEasing will look like.
// www.zerohedge.com
Как отдать долг в квадриллион йен? Никак. Вот тот заяц, который умрёт у них последним. А поскольку долг в основном внутренний, извиняться придётся перед своими, а этот процесс уже отработан до автоматизма.